The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is all set to announce its policy rate decision today, with RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra scheduled to deliver the Monetary Policy Statement at 10:00 AM, followed by a press conference at 12:00 PM.
This policy announcement is keenly awaited by economists, market participants, and policymakers, as it comes amid global uncertainty and mixed signals from domestic economic indicators. While the last policy meet in February saw a 25 basis point (bps) cut, bringing the repo rate down to 6.25%, the outlook for today’s decision remains divided.
A section of economists is calling for a 50 bps cut, urging the RBI to front-load rate easing to support growth. Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist at Piramal Group, said in an interaction with ANI, “The RBI should consider a 50-basis-point cut in April as a pre-emptive move. Domestic inflation is subdued, global yields are softening, and the rupee is recovering — all of which present an ideal backdrop for aggressive rate easing.”
Chaudhuri noted that with inflation under control and the USD-INR exchange rate stabilising, the RBI has room to act boldly and stimulate growth.
However, others are advocating a more cautious approach. Sonal Badhan, Economics Specialist at Bank of Baroda, expects a 25 bps cut and a shift in stance towards an accommodative policy. “We expect a 25 basis points cut, with the RBI remaining cautious until there is more clarity on the monsoon. The shift to an accommodative stance will open the door for further cuts based on evolving macroeconomic conditions,” she stated.
Globally, central banks are under pressure to maintain stability amid rising geopolitical risks and protectionist policies, especially after US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff hikes, which have added to economic uncertainty.
The RBI’s decision today will be critical in setting the tone for borrowing costs, liquidity management, and economic momentum in the months ahead.
